PAGASA Adopts AI to Boost Weather Forecasting Amid Operational Struggles

The Philippine weather bureau, PAGASA, is integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into its weather forecasting to improve accuracy and extend predictions. This move is a crucial step as PAGASA grapples with outdated equipment, limited operational radars, and budget constraints that hamper its ability to provide timely weather updates to the public​.

Existing Challenges at PAGASA

PAGASA has been dealing with a shortage of functional Doppler radars, with only 11 out of the required 21 currently operational. The lack of funding has further limited its capacity to replace damaged radars or build new weather stations, affecting the overall quality and reach of its forecasts. The agency’s budget was recently reduced, hindering investments in critical infrastructure and technology upgrades needed for accurate forecasting​.

Additionally, PAGASA faces human resource challenges, including a shortage of meteorologists due to inadequate pay and limited local training programs in meteorology. These factors contribute to PAGASA's struggle to fully utilize its new regional weather centers, which aim to provide more localized and precise weather information across the Philippines.

The Role of AI in Enhancing Forecasting

AI technology promises to address many of PAGASA’s current issues by allowing for faster and more accurate weather predictions. AI models will extend forecast periods from five to 14 days and increase the frequency of updates to every 15 minutes, providing near real-time weather data. This is particularly beneficial for the Philippines, where quick response to severe weather events can save lives and reduce damage​.

AI's capabilities in nowcasting—providing very short-term forecasts—will also be critical for managing sudden weather changes, such as flash floods and thunderstorms. AI systems can process vast amounts of data from satellites, radars, and sensors, enabling them to provide highly localized forecasts and severe weather alerts, which enhances public safety measures.​

Global Trends in AI-Driven Weather Forecasting

PAGASA’s adoption of AI follows a global trend where leading tech companies like Google, NVIDIA, and Huawei are pushing the boundaries of weather forecasting with AI models that offer faster and more accurate predictions. These models, such as Google’s GraphCast, are trained on decades of weather data and use machine learning to identify patterns that improve forecast accuracy while requiring less computational power than traditional methods​.

However, AI models do have limitations. Their accuracy depends on the quality of data inputs, and they may struggle with predicting rare or extreme weather events that deviate from historical patterns. Integrating AI with traditional methods and human expertise remains essential for ensuring reliable and actionable forecasts​.

Looking Ahead

Despite the hurdles, PAGASA is committed to leveraging AI to enhance its weather forecasting capabilities. The integration of AI is expected to bolster PAGASA's position as the primary authority on weather in the Philippines, providing the public with more precise and timely information. Continued investment in technology and training will be key to maximizing the benefits of AI, ensuring that PAGASA can meet the increasing demand for accurate weather data in a country frequently affected by severe weather.

For more information, you can explore the complete reports at Manila Standard and ABS-CBN News.